Rubber rushed back and fell lower, rebounding short thinking unchanged
On the supply side: the global production areas are being opened; due to the large release of new cutable areas, global natural rubber production is expected to increase significantly this year. In the first five months, ANRPC increased production by 5.9%; domestic spot market costs are high, and traders have no intention of lowering. Active offer is less. On the other hand, importers are less motivated to purchase, and there has been a decrease in cargo arrivals in Hong Kong in recent months; there has been no substantial progress in the meeting on production cuts last weekend; global overcapacity of styrene-butadiene rubber has been severe, and the operating rate of domestic enterprises has been decreasing year by year. Demand: Tire internal demand is weak, firm guidance and WeChat tslq88 external demand began to improve, tires started to increase slightly, compared with the same year-on-year, tire factory raw materials will be weaker. The domestic spot market has higher costs, and traders have no intention of lowering their bids. On the other hand, importers are less motivated to purchase, and the cargo in Hong Kong has decreased in recent months. The performance of the US dollar rubber market is relatively strong, so the spot market is expected to decline slightly.
Futures market: Rubber opened sharply higher on Thursday, and then the pressure fell back to lower than 12,800. After a big dip in the afternoon, the final drop was reported in the Yinxian line. The rubber completely verified the point that the rubber that the author suggested was sharply pulled up and then shorted. If you are operating, it is recommended to continue to be short-selling. You need to wait for the price to rebound to around 12600 and then intervene.
Shanghai zinc is the only leader, the rest of the plate is settled
The analysis believes that the copper fundamentals seem to be very strong. There may be a shortage of supply this year. The supply of the Grasberg and Escondida copper mines at the beginning of the year has not been resolved and will resurface. At present, the overall atmosphere of the copper market is biased towards optimism. Shanghai copper has risen 550, supporting the spot copper price to rebound and the market buying momentum has improved. Although the domestic copper market demand has been weakened by environmental protection and off-season factors, the sales of high-quality raw materials such as electrolytic copper are still acceptable, and the inventory of electrolytic copper in the local market is low, and the support price has maintained a slight increase. The tight supply of high-quality recycled copper is still going on, and it is still difficult to change in the short term, because the ordering intention of the orderer is still not high. Because the market is generally optimistic in July, and it is expected that the supply of goods in the market will become increasingly tight, buyers hope to replenish stocks in moderation.
Operation suggestion: Shanghai Zinc rose strongly on Thursday to close the Dayang line, copper and nickel fell back to the Yin and followed the bulk of the commodity, although Shanghai Zinc showed a unique show but the author believes that it can not drive the entire colored plate to rebound, it is recommended that copper and zinc nickel night plate and On Friday, the high-decision and decisive participation in the empty-single idea, the three are expected to go down at the same time.
Thread iron ore rushes back to fall, and the short-sky idea matches
According to the Beijing May residential sales price data released by the Beijing Bureau of Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the new residential buildings in Beijing were unchanged from April and stopped rising in May. The price of large-sized new houses of 144 square meters or more fell by 0.2% from the previous month. The housing market experienced an overall decline, with an overall decline of 0.9%. According to the latest data from the central bank's management department, the proportion of new personal housing loans in Beijing in May fell sharply, and the growth rate of real estate loans fell to the level of September 2016. From the demand side, looking for the steel boom index shows that the demand started soon after the holiday this year, the firm guidance plus WeChat tslq88 and maintained a high intensity in the three months of the 3-5 months, confirming the first half Demand is strong, but from the end of May, the prosperity index has shown a significant decline. East China entered the rainy season, and the demand season has a greater impact on the transaction. In the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to the steel boom index, pay attention to the change of the transaction, and whether the demand can be started quickly after the rainy season is the key factor for whether this wave can continue.
Threaded steel ore fell to a higher level on Thursday, and the rebar has a large drop and a continuous decline in the third consecutive Yinxian. Iron ore is finally driven to lower and the yin iron mine is currently lower. It is recommended that both of them open up and rebound and then they can choose to short the order, and the rebar is expected to fall to around 3000.
The plastic pp bears won a big victory and the decline will continue
The OPEC member states and the non-OPEC oil producers joint committee said that the market is not expected to achieve rebalancing by 2018; and in 2018 it has completely exceeded the expected production cuts. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in a national broadcast that OPEC is likely to continue to deepen production cuts; but many potential bullish factors have not yet boosted oil prices, including tropical storms that have curbed major oil terminals in the Gulf of Mexico; The political situation in the Saudi royal family is turbulent. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Sweden's Nordic Bank (SEB) in Oslo, said that at present, oil prices seem to lack the ability to act, so oil prices have further downside risks. Due to the recovery of shale oil in the United States and the continuous increase in production in Libya, the reduction of production by OPEC member countries and non-OPEC oil producers headed by Russia will be difficult.
Operational recommendations: Plastics and pp fell sharply on Thursday to close the big Yinxian, plastics fell nearly 200 points, the author's view of the empty plastic pp has been verified by the market, Friday plastic pp is still not optimistic, the probability of falling back is high, it is recommended After the rebound in the session, you can make a decisive short-selling order. It is expected that there will be a drop in the high and a lower level.
Operational opportunities in the bean curd
In terms of inventory: National soybean meal stocks increased by 4.4%, but the regional differences were large. Among them, in the Guangdong region, the soybean meal inventory increased significantly, increasing by 70%, when the operating rate increased and the delivery volume decreased slightly. In Shandong and North China, the operating rate was increased, and soybean meal stocks increased by 26.3% and 11.8% respectively. Due to the slowdown in picking up, the stock of soybean meal in East China also increased slightly. The firm guidance and WeChat tslq88 were affected by the decline in crushing volume, and the soybean meal stocks in Northeast China and Guangxi decreased by 14.9% and 4.5% respectively. In Fujian, due to the increase in the volume of goods received, soybean meal stocks fell by 2.9%. USDA Preview: US soybean export sales are expected to be between 35 and 750,000 tons. The US Department of Agriculture will release a weekly export sales report on Thursday. For the week ending June 15, US soybean export net sales were close to 350,000 tons to 750,000 tons. In contrast, last week's net sales were 654,000 tons.
Operation suggestion: The vegetable cardamom fell back on Thursday and was affected by the decline of the outer disk. The overall performance of the stock market was weak on Thursday. After Thursday's weakening, it is expected that there will be a strong disk on Friday. After opening the rebound and rebounding, you can choose to empty the order. The pressure of the vegetable and the short position are around 2250. You can participate in the empty order near the 2680, and take advantage of the short-term short-term profit.
Cotton is short, short-selling opportunities still exist
Futures News: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures continued to fall on Wednesday, falling for the ninth consecutive day. Domestically, the reserve price of reserve cotton continued to fall, and the proportion of Xinjiang cotton has declined recently. The transaction rate is basically stable. At the same time, the proportion of textile enterprises participating in the auction remains high; the spot price has stabilized slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow out. . On the international front, US cotton production is expected to increase, export volume is forecast to decrease, weather speculation is frequent, and cotton prices fluctuate greatly. In India, cotton spot prices are high and there is a downward pressure in the later period. In the long run, the large pre-increased cotton planting area in the new global year will suppress international cotton prices for a long time. The loose pattern of domestic supply and demand has not changed, and cotton prices are under pressure, and it is easy to fall. Zheng cotton has a dilemma. In operation, investors are advised to temporarily leave the market and pay close attention to changes in the policy of dumping.
Operation suggestion: Cotton rushed to 15300 on Thursday and fell back to low, completely confirming the view that the author suggested shorting around 15300. The author recently mentioned that the pressure of 15300 is relatively close to this position is a good short-selling opportunity this week. It has been profitable for many times. If you operate at night and on Friday, it is recommended that the cotton rebound will rise to around 15200 and you can participate in the short list again. The short-term chance is good.
Palm oil soybean oil is driven by crude oil, showing short selling opportunities
Malaysia's palm oil futures price hit a new high of RM2515/ton, and the pressure on the 60-day moving average has dropped. Yesterday, it was a gap and opened lower, bringing some pressure on domestic palm oil futures prices. At the same time, the market expects to see more rain this week, which is conducive to the initial growth of the US soybeans, so that the average price of the US soybeans has risen. The oil arbitrage arbitrage has caused the CBOT soybean oil price to fall slightly, dragging the domestic soybean oil futures price. A drop of more than 1% has also dragged down the price of the palm oil in Linchi. In addition, the decline in international crude oil prices also put pressure on the entire oil market. As of June 20, the domestic spot price of the fourth grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang area was 5,900 yuan / ton, while the domestic Guangdong port 24 degree palm oil spot price was 5,760 yuan. /Ton. According to industry insiders, although the spot soybean oil-palm oil price gap has rebounded from the previous 50 yuan/ton, the current price difference is still in a relatively low historical area. Under the impact of a large number of imported soybeans, the operating rate of oil plants is high. The rise in output will keep soybean oil in a favorable position in the price competition with palm oil.
Operational recommendations: Soybean palm oil fell back and fell on Thursday, mainly driven by the recent decline in crude oil, soy oil palm oil night and Friday short-selling opportunities, palm oil above 5200 and soybean oil at 5800 or more to choose a short list, In the intraday, I saw the high market and suggested short-term operation ideas.
Asphalt methanol long-term loss, shorts will be pressed step by step
Looking back at the trend of methanol futures since June, the overall situation is strong and volatile. The overall price of Zheng alcohol has maintained an upward trend, which is mainly affected by four factors. First, in terms of supply, the overall social inventory of domestic methanol is 398,700 tons, showing a downward trend. The inventory in the superimposed port area continues to decline, which has a certain boost to the futures price. Second, in terms of demand, Shenhua Ning coal olefin plant unexpectedly. And with the end of environmental monitoring, the demand for methanol has improved, leading to an increase in the recent price; third, in terms of raw materials, the inspection team stationed in Mongolia to control the issuance of coal pipe tickets, and the increase in the number of users of superimposed lump coal has led to a surge in coal enterprises. More, the coal market has shown signs of recovery, resulting in increased costs and support for methanol formation costs. Fourth, in terms of technology, the short-term moving averages are showing signs of turning heads upwards, and they are on the upper rail of the Bollinger Band.
Futures market: Asphalt methanol continued to fall back and fall on the day of the fall, methanol fell more than the whole day, the asphalt continued to be two consecutive Yinxian, asphalt methanol operation, it is recommended to maintain a rebound and short-selling ideas, the two open rebound and then choose to empty the single idea, asphalt can In 2270 and above and methanol in the vicinity of 2340 can be decisive short-selling, the intraday highs down.
The short-term idea of ​​corn and starch is confirmed, and the short-selling continues to be short
Recently, the national corn market has shown a small upward trend. The uptrend of corn is a manifestation of the overall shortage of supply in the market. On the one hand, the state reserve Chen grain out of the warehouse is slow, the market has less grain surplus, and the overall supply of corn is small. On the other hand, the Northeast deep processing enterprises are making a lot of storage for the processing subsidies that are coming to an end. Under the combined effect of two factors, corn prices have been rising slowly in the near future. Therefore, whether the corn price will continue to rise in the later period is the center of recent discussions. Into the corn processing enterprises in July will have a wave of centralized shutdown maintenance, corn demand will be weakened. In addition, subsidies for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China will end on June 30. If there is no subsidy, the northeast corn deep processing enterprises will basically lose money, and the follow-up demand for corn will be basically zero. Supply: the national reserve corn continues to be released, and there is some grain in the later period. Demand: Deep processing enterprises enter the shutdown maintenance season, and the total demand for corn is reduced.
Operation suggestion: corn starch and corn meet the author's suggestion of rebounding short and empty, the current corn and starch did not appear too much direction, the short-term continued to maintain a large probability of shock consolidation within the range, it is recommended that the price back behind the opportunity to do more rebound After the high short list, the corn range is 1660-1670, and the starch range is 1980-2000.
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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