Over the head? The debt of the debt is still strong

Concerns about the stabilization of fundamentals continue to weigh on bond market performance. On the 16th, the government bond futures market fell sharply. The 10-year bond contract T1712 fell 0.36%, the lowest since August 8. The 5-year bond contract TF1712 fell 0.25%, the lowest since May 23. Analysts believe that this wave of adjustments in the bond market since the end of September has basically reflected the expectations of fundamentals and policies. Even if the economic data unexpectedly improved in September, the space for treasury bonds futures to continue to decline is limited. On the whole, under the judgment that there is still downward pressure on the economic growth in the fourth quarter, the current view of the mid-term debt of the debt futures still prevails.

New debts in the period of reinstatement

With the release of data on trade, social financing, and inflation in September, the economy is basically facing good expectations and heating up again, and it has triggered a sharp correction in the bond market.

On Monday (16th), the treasury bond futures market opened sharply lower. The 10-year treasury bond futures contract T1712 quickly fell to 94.26 yuan in early trading, with the biggest drop of more than 0.4%. Then it remained at a low level throughout the day, closing down 0.36% to 94.315. Yuan, the new low since August 8; in the 5-year variety, the main contract TF1712 closed down 0.25% to 97.02 yuan, the lowest since May 23.

Yesterday, the inter-bank bond yields rose sharply by 4-5BP. As of the close, the 10-year CDB active coupon 170215 yield rose more than 4BP to 4.2975%, the highest price was 4.3% in early trading; the 10-year government bond active coupon 170018 yield rose. More than 3BP reported 3.705%, the highest reported in early trading 3.71%, refreshing this year's high.

"16 T-bond futures opened sharply lower, no significant effect after inflation data released market, taking into account the stock market and commodity opening up, the market is for the September economic data than-expected reaction." Guotai Junan 601211, diagnosis of the Securities Interested said.

The mid-line is still rich in atmosphere.

The recent adjustment of the treasury bond futures and the spot market is obvious. Since September 29, the 10-year bond futures main contract T1712 has fallen from 95.3 yuan to 94.315 yuan, with a cumulative decline of 0.945 yuan or 0.99%; the 10-year government bond yield has risen sharply from 3.61% to 3.7%. The cumulative uplink is about 9BP.

A number of institutions analyzed that although the market sentiment was cautious before the release of important economic data in September, the debt futures continued to fall, but overall, the judgment of the downward pressure on the economy in the fourth quarter was still relatively consistent. More views are still more.

“Standing in the current position, futures are more driven by sentiment. The current decline has basically reflected the expectations of fundamentals and regulatory policies. The bottom of futures is more stable. The central bank has oversold the operation of MLF and the financial data M2 has stabilized. also brought a stable financial side, the overall maintain bullish view, continued to shrink in real estate sales, the growth rate of investment in infrastructure under difficult upward background, marginal downward economy in the fourth quarter compared to determine. "Shenwan Hong source 000166, consider attending stocks In this round of shocks, the bottom of the treasury bond futures is very stable. Several signals to break the deadlock are: comprehensive supervision regulations, landing signs, easing of funds, and economic data continue to fall.

Guoxin Securities 002,736, attending stocks also said that in conjunction with trend indicators, pressure indicators support and the volatility indicators, the Treasury futures market risk has been released last week, this week will introduce key economic data in the third quarter, if the data show the economy is good The pressure on the treasury bond futures market is not large; if the economy confirms the downward trend, the treasury bond futures may rise.

10-year government bond yield exceeded 3.7%

The mid-term allocation opportunities in the bond market are gradually becoming apparent

On the 16th, due to the continued negative fermentation of financial data, the 10-year bond yield broke through the 3.7% mark, hitting a new high this year. The 10-year bond futures main contract under the bearish atmosphere also jumped 0.36%.

Analysts pointed out that the current economic and financial data released in September are better than expected, and the market's disagreement over the fundamentals of the economy has once again expanded. If the fundamentals are cashed in, the economic expectations are revised. It is necessary to be wary of the fourth quarter of the bond market. "Investors' optimal strategy in the short term should be "more wait and see, less toss." In the medium term, many institutions believe that the fundamentals are still a strong support for the bond market. This round of yields is a better allocation and trading opportunities.

10-year national debt broke 3.7%

As the 10-year bond yields have risen all the way and broke through 3.7%, investors' expectations for the recovery of the post-holiday bond market have completely failed.

On the morning of the 16th, the 10-year Treasury bond activity coupon 170018 opened more than 3BP to 3.7%, and then climbed to 3.71% in more than 10 minutes, setting a new high for this year; the 10-year National Bonded Bonds 170215 yield was also early in the morning. Up 4BP to 4.3%, only 2BP lower than the previous high.

In fact, the performance of the weaker-than-expected bond market on the first day after the National Day has almost laid the foundation for the overall weakness of the market in the near future.

On the first day after the holiday (9th), the market funds were extremely tight. The repo rate increased significantly in both the interbank market and the exchange market. This shattered the bond investors’ expectations for the post-holiday market. The main contract of the government bond futures T1712 fell 0.36%, and the 10-year bond yield also rose more than 3BP to 3.65%. Afterwards, the funds were tightened and the central bank continued to renew MLF. It also failed to boost market sentiment. Last week, the 10-year bond yield rose by 7BP to 3.68%, just a step away from the previous high of 3.69%.

Subsequent announcements of macroeconomic data such as import and export, social welfare, and credit were followed in September as “the straw that overwhelmed the camel”. According to statistics, in September, China's imports in September increased by 19.5% year-on-year and exports increased by 9%, both higher than the previous value and expectations. China's new RMB loans in September reached 1.27 trillion yuan, achieving two consecutive increases, and M2 increased by 9.2%. %, the growth rate is the first rebound in 8 months, the same double is higher than the previous value and expected. In addition, China's September CPI announced on the 16th, the year-on-year growth rate slowed to 1.6%, for 8 consecutive months, less than 2%, in line with expectations; PP I exceeded expectations by 6.9%, the increase for the second consecutive month, and for March The highest since the beginning, higher than expected and the previous value.

The industry believes that the current September economic and financial data has confirmed that China's economic fundamentals remain stable and good, which is the main reason for the debt market to continue to sharply retreat this week. Looking further, this round of rapid rate of return is mainly due to the expected improvement in economic fundamentals, the over-expectation of post-holiday liquidity, and the lack of expectations for targeted RRR cuts. Founder Securities 601901, clinics shares closed solid research report pointed out that the recovery environment abundant in RRR and directed the financial side, the interest rate debt down not up, there may be three reasons: First, monetary policy is expected to impact the poor, the market drop orientation The prospects for the short-term monetary policy easing have already made more expectations, but they have waited for a targeted RRR cut rather than a full RRR cut. Second, the excessive level of funding before the long vacation exceeded the expectations of many institutions. The market is worried that the economic data will be better in the short term, and the layout will be safe in advance.

Last fall or not finished

After the 10-year national debt fell below the 3.7% mark, there is still room for upside in the year, which has become the focus of the current market. Some market participants are worried that if short-term negative factors push the bond yields to rise further, it may trigger a strong stop loss and push the yield higher.

CICC's fixed-receiving research believes that there are five major concerns about investors' bond market: one is the increase in bond supply pressure in the fourth quarter; the other is that the economy is generally resilient, and the economic data is still picking up seasonally in September; the third is going Under the circumstances that the big tone of leverage has not changed, the central bank's monetary policy is difficult to loosen down; fourth, the financial deleveraging policy may continue to be introduced; fifth, the environmental protection production limit is overweight, and many provinces and cities have started to limit production in October, and the production may be reduced. Will exceed the previous estimate. The increase in express prices has caused the market to worry that inflationary pressures may be transmitted from industrial products to consumer goods.

"From the perspective of credit and social resources, the fundamentals are still not obvious. The bond market still faces economic resilience, policy orientation after October, whether financial risk prevention policies will heat up, supply pressure and risk assets performance are multiple constraints. Difficult to present trend opportunities." CICC pointed out.

Huachuang Securities clearly pointed out that in the fourth quarter of this year, it is necessary to be vigilant against the last drop, and the bond market yield may break through quickly. The agency believes that the bond market volatility in the fourth quarter is generally large, and the treasury bond yield has upside; from the supply point of view, the increase in supply scale over the historical period in the fourth quarter of this year will boost the fourth quarter's rate of return; from liquidity Look, in October, the capital is facing a lot of pressure on tax payment, and it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic about the funds. From a fundamental point of view, the economic data in September has rebounded and the economy is still stable. It may continue to show the phenomenon of data jumping at the end of the quarter, and economic resilience. Far more than the market expectation, the fundamentals in the fourth quarter may once again become a super-market expectation factor; from the policy point of view, the governance financial chaos continues to advance, still need to be alert to the fourth quarter policy risks. In addition, the risk of overseas markets also put pressure on the domestic bond market in the fourth quarter, and the bond market has the last drop.

In general, the agency believes that in the short term, economic data in the third quarter will become a core factor affecting the bond market. If the upcoming third quarter economic data once again significantly exceeds market expectations, the bond market is likely to continue to adjust. Of course, if the economic data is in line with expectations or even weaker than expected, the bond market is also expected to recover some of the previous decline.

Medium-term allocation opportunities appear

In the medium term, many institutions still believe that the 2017 economic probability will remain “high before and then low”, so there is still strong support from the bond market. This round of rising yield may bring more Good configuration and trading opportunities.

In the medium term, the core contradiction of the bond market lies in the fundamentals of the economy. CICC believes that the resilience of the economy is mainly supported by the infrastructure and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure. However, as the infrastructure growth rate is high and then low, and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is gradually reduced by the deficit, the subsequent economic momentum may slow down. Although the bond market is currently constrained by short-term factors, in the medium term, the fundamentals are the most powerful support for the bond market. Monetary policy will eventually adjust accordingly as the fundamentals change.

In terms of liquidity, institutions generally expect that monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the funding will continue to remain tight. The slight improvement in liquidity in the fourth quarter is still expected. Shen Wanhong pointed out that factors such as comprehensive tax payment, fiscal expenditure, foreign exchange holdings and central bank operation intentions are expected to remain stable in October, and liquidity in the fourth quarter is better than that in the third quarter, but the final funding is tight. The extent is still dependent on the central bank's operational intent.

With the gradual establishment of factors in the mid-term favorable bond market, many institutions believe that for investors, especially configuration-type institutions, this increase in yields is a better allocation and trading opportunities.

"Overall, the current Treasury prices fell, the configuration provides a better opportunity." State Securities 600,109, clinics shares represented, first of all, in September rebound in economic data do not have continuity. The market's good forecast for September data mainly comes from manufacturing PMI and import and export data, but from the perspective of manufacturing PMI, there are actually four major deviations; from the import and export data, the decline in nominal GDP growth will also be applied. Pressing foreign trade in the fourth quarter. Second, commodity prices may continue to fall in the fourth quarter. From the perspective of the total amount of actual demand, the probability of a decline in the total demand of China and the United States in the fourth quarter will be a big drag, which will drag down global trade. Third, the impact of the rise in US bond yields on China's debt and China's monetary policy is not significant.

On the whole, considering that the bond market may have a “last decline” in the fourth quarter, the optimal strategy for investors in the short term should be “more wait and see, less toss”. Of course, in the medium term, the return of the bond market is still worth looking forward to. The configuration-type institutions and transaction-type institutions can also increase the allocation when the yield rises, waiting for the opportunity of the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year to fall.

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