[Review of key data today]
Australia's Reserve Bank of Australia benchmark interest rate announced on October 3, 1.5%, the previous value of 1.5%, expected 1.5%
[Today's Global Holidays Announcement]
Due to the National Day holiday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are closed, due to the unification day, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is closed for one day, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Seoul Stock Exchange is closed for the fourth day, today is the first day, due to National Day holiday, China Shanghai Futures Exchange closed from October 1st to 8th, due to National Day holiday, China Shanghai Gold Exchange closed from September 30th to October 8th
(For more details, please pay attention to the newsletter official website)
[Oil market, gold market and foreign exchange market]
First, the international oil market:
Russian oil minister said this week's Moscow meeting focused on oil export oil prices to recover some lost ground
Although international oil prices rose more than 10% in the third quarter, the performance in the fourth quarter was unfavorable. On Monday (October 2), US WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.1%, and Brent crude oil also fell 0.5%. Tuesday (October 3) After the opening of the market, the decline continued, and the momentum of the third quarter was further lost. Therefore, the former Reuters and Bloomberg survey showed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased its overall output in August, indicating that the global crude oil supply may not be like a long position. It is hoped that it will be eliminated quickly and the price of oil will be depressed. During the European trading session, the Russian energy minister said that this week's Moscow meeting will focus on oil exports, and there is news that Libya's largest oilfield, the Shala oilfield, has suffered heavy losses, providing support for oil prices, and oil prices have begun to recover some lost ground.
US oil 15 minutes chart oil 15 minutes trend chart 2, the global gold market
The dollar strengthened and the situation in North Korea eased the price of gold to fall to a seven-week low.
The international gold price fell to a nearly seven-week low during the Asian session on Tuesday (October 3), after the optimistic economic data and strong US bond yields kept the dollar strong. At the same time, the US and the DPRK temporarily stopped, and the market’s worries about the North Korean military plan declined.
Spot gold 15 minutes chart III, global currency market
Offshore renminbi once hit a low of 6.69, the future exchange rate will be more flexible
Offshore Renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar fell on Tuesday (October 3), the Asian market hit a full-day low of 6.69 in the morning trading session, but was closed in the mainland market on the National Day Golden Week holiday, offshore The market lacks clear guidelines, so the majority of trading hours remain at around 6.67. In addition, strong economic data drove the dollar higher and the offshore renminbi was under pressure.
USD against offshore RMB 15 minutes Chart US dollar index 15 minutes chart [Today's financial news review]
I. International Financial News
[Singing against JP Morgan Chase" Goldman Sachs considers helping customers trade Bitcoin]
According to Bloomberg News, a source familiar with the situation revealed that Goldman Sachs Group is exploring the issue of how to help customers trade Bitcoin and other digital currencies, becoming the first Wall Street giant to consider direct trading of digital currencies. The anonymous source said that Goldman Sachs is in talks with cryptocurrency experts, but has not yet developed a business plan or implementation schedule, nor has it made any bitcoin-related investments. The group is looking to answer some questions, such as how to deal with customer requirements and how to understand the risks of volatile virtual currencies.
[Clash with the Spanish government escalates Catalonia leaders call for international mediation]
Sebastian leaders in Catalonia, Spain, called on the international community to mediate clashes between the region and the central government on Monday. The police used to fire batons and fire rubber bullets and hundreds of people were injured in the previous day. The referendum results show that the number of votes supporting independence is overwhelming. The referendum was declared illegal by the Spanish government and was resisted by anti-disengagement parties. Carles Puigdemont, president of the Catalonia Autonomous Region, said that the results of this vote are valid and must be implemented. "This is not an internal issue," he said at a press conference on Monday. "It is obvious that we need to mediate." He added: "We don't want a separation of bloodshed... We hope to build a new understanding with the Spanish government."
[Federal interest rate hovering during the year? Officials say they need to study carefully whether they should raise interest rates in December]
According to Reuters, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Monday that the Fed will need to "carefully study" whether it should raise interest rates in December, but before raising interest rates, there is no need to wait for inflation to return to or even return to the 2% target. Kaplan said in an interview with Reuters, "I need to see some evidence to make me think that the cyclical strength is strong enough, and inflation will eventually start to rise, even if I can't see it now." He is on the Fed's Policy Committee this year. FOMC) has the right to vote.
[Australian Federal Reserve is expected to stand still in the Australian dollar / US dollar short-term diving]
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the latest interest rate resolutions and policy statements at noon on Tuesday (October 3). The Fed, as expected, did not move, and decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5%, which is the 14th consecutive month to maintain interest rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia said that policy remains unchanged in line with sustainable economic growth, low interest rates continue to support the economy, and potential inflation is expected to rise gradually. After the interest rate decision was announced, the Australian dollar dipped in short-term against the US dollar.
[Long Goldman Speaks: The US economy is picking up and the dollar is expected to continue]
The US dollar continued to move higher. The US dollar index maintained its gains against a basket of six other major currencies on the first trading day of the fourth quarter, with an increase of about 0.5% and a high of 93.65. In these striking rally, the pound fell against the dollar by about 1% on Monday to 1.3253, while the euro fell more than 0.5% against the dollar to 1.1728. Goldman Sachs analysts Zach Pandl and Zach Pandl released a report on Monday (October 2) that the dollar's gains are expected to continue. Goldman Sachs analysts point out that although Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria may put pressure on some upcoming data, including Friday's employment data, the US economy looks good: in the past three months Our current economic activity indicators have increased by an average of 3%. In addition, despite many uncertainties, our US economic team expects inflation reports to be stronger in the coming months.
[Japanese House of Representatives election is in the Abe cabinet support rate decline]
The Japan Broadcasting Association conducted a computerized random sample telephone poll of nationals over the age of 18 from September 29 to October 1. The results showed that the Abe cabinet support rate fell by 7% to 37% from the previous month, the unsupport rate rose by 8% to 44%, and the Abe cabinet did not support the rate and then exceeded the support rate. Yan Hou, an emeritus professor at Yamaguchi University in Japan, pointed out that if the Liberal Democratic Party fails to win in the general election, the Abe regime will be negatively hit and even disintegrated.
Second, domestic financial news
[September steel prices continue to rise in the industry: still will not rise upwards]
In August, steel prices maintained an upward trend. Due to policy measures such as heating seasons and limited production, the market is expected to rise, steel production remains at a high level, and steel prices continue to rise. In September, steel prices showed a slight decline as market expectations fell. According to the analysis of China Metallurgical News, there is no significant improvement in real estate demand for steel in this year, and demand for steel in the heating season may decline.
[OCBC Bank: The People's Bank of China announced for the first time that the long-term downgrade is expected to inject a net injection of RMB 30-400 billion]
The OCBC Bank of Singapore reported that the central bank's directional RRR cut has three characteristics. One is the long-term RRR cut, and the new reserve ratio starts in 2018. Second, the definition of inclusive finance makes the directional RRR more standardized. Third, the new directional RRR will replace the past targeting policy, and the actual net injection liquidity is expected to be 30-400 billion yuan. This targeted RRR cut is not a turning point in monetary policy. In the future, the central bank may still wave the “big stick†to control liquidity in the open market, and the other hand will wave the “carrot†reward loan policy with the same level of national reform policy.
[In 2020, the annual utilization of geothermal energy in China will reach 70 million tons of standard coal]
According to the plan prepared by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the annual utilization of geothermal energy in China will reach 70 million tons of standard coal in 2020, and the annual utilization of geothermal energy heating will be 40 million tons of standard coal. Accelerating the development and utilization of geothermal energy is not only important for adjusting energy structure, energy conservation and emission reduction, and improving the environment, but also has a significant pulling effect on cultivating emerging industries, promoting new urbanization and increasing employment, and is an important measure to promote ecological civilization construction. .
[Reporting that the current market sector's rotation phenomenon is not rising up to the north]
According to the brokerage China report, the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute recently released the “National Real Estate Sector Rotation Phenomenon Research Reportâ€, showing that the property market in the current real estate cycle has spread from the first-tier cities to the second-tier cities, and then recently passed to third-tier cities. For the first time in China's property market, there was a similar phenomenon in the stock market. It is particularly noteworthy that the first place in the current housing market cycle is not the first-tier cities, but the Hefei, the provincial capital of Anhui Province, with a cumulative increase of 52%. Beijing and Guangzhou ranked second and third respectively with 51% and 47% gains.
[Multi-institutions forecast GDP growth in the third quarter is about 6.8%. Economic quality and efficiency improvement]
The macroeconomic data for the third quarter was announced soon, and many institutions predicted that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was about 6.8%. Judging from the leading indicators, the China PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 30 was 52.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and reaching its highest point since May 2012. The manufacturing industry continued to maintain a stable and good development trend, and the pace of expansion has accelerated.
[Real Estate Industry Association President: Real Estate Tax Should New House New Method Old House Old Way]
Liu Zhifeng, president of the Real Estate Industry Association, said that real estate tax should be introduced as soon as possible. When the real estate tax is levied, the "new house new method and the old house old method" can be adopted. The so-called "new house new method" is to levy a real estate tax on new houses. The construction land is still subject to bidding and auction. When bidding, it is stipulated that the real estate tax should be levied on the families who purchase new houses. The recommended tax rate is set at 1%~2%.
[Global major stock index closing]
--Asia--
Taiwan's weighted index closed at 0.04% on October 3 (Tuesday), at 10469.35 points
The Nikkei 225 index closed at 1.05% on October 3 (Tuesday), at 20615.50 points.
Australia's S&P/ASX200 index closed down 0.49% on October 3 (Tuesday), at 5701.40 points
--Europe--
[Stock Index] The UK's FTSE 100 index opened at 0.06% on October 3 (Tuesday), at 7434.25 points.
[Stock index broadcast] France's CAC40 index fell 0.24% on October 3 (Tuesday), reported 5363.30 points
[Stock index broadcast] Spain's IBEX35 index opened on October 3 (Tuesday), no change, reported 10257.00 points
[Stock Index Broadcast] Italy's FTSE index fell 0.19% on October 3 (Tuesday), to 22,855.50 points
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